2008/10/07

Analysis: The return of history and the beggining of the end for US empire?


Does Wall Street’s crack-up presages the beginning of the end for American power and global dominance? Empires of the past have seen their ideologies corrupt, their economies corrupt, their currencies devalue, finally loosing their military supremacy. The US increasingly is relying on its military. Cracks appearing here as well (Georgia etc.).

The US is short of metals, short of oil, increasingly short of water for agriculture, has debt beyond belief, a crippled and dysfunctional financial system, a population accustomed to living beyond there means, consuming things they do not need and cannot afford, as well as the most powerful military force in the world.

Russia has heaps of savings, no liquidity concerns given the cash government is sitting on, natural resources - oil, gas, minerals, vast agricultural land and resources etc. Russia is increasingly challenging the value of foreign investment, (macro economic problem according to Russia, other countries may follow) for less volatile internal investment and displaying increasingly assertive foreign policy. I have to say, long term, if I were a betting man, my money would not be on the USA.

There is increasing posturing for control and resources - new players, China, Russia, as well as non state players like islamist movements - this is leaving Americans feeling increasingly insecure. Unfortunately, the American reaction seems to be to fall back on military power as recent global events (Georgia etc.) seem to be pushing voters more and more to the "reassuring" figure of McCaine - veteran generation - but this is not going to help America's relationship with the world. If America wants to retain its grip on power it needs to display a little more benevolence. If I were America I would be doing everything I could right now to make sure I had some friends ahead of when the revolution comes, since it is obviously going to be America first with its back up against the wall - Scary thoughts.

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