Event: Media Talk - Is Somalia the new Front in the War on Terror?

Thu 11th September, 7.30pm Price: £10.00

Chaired by Patrick Smith (Africa Confidential)

Ahmed Abdisalam (TFG)
Mohamed Gure (Somali Concern Group)
Sally Healy (Chatham House)
Mary Harper (BBC)


Location: 13 Norfolk Place, London W2 1QJ

This event will be webcast live on Fontline Club's website - you can view it for free via the link - www.frontlineclub.com


Since 1991, Somalia has been a dangerous, violent and lawless place, home to numerous conflicts and civil war. From localised inter-tribal and clan warfare, to regional tensions and international disputes, Somalia remains a highly complex battleground. Is Somalia really the new home to Al-Qaeda and the next front in the War on Terror?

Somalia's intricate and fiercely loyal clan-based system means that the country is primarily under the control of clan militia. On a regional level, the longstanding tensions with Ethiopia continue, while the proxy war between the US-backed Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government - which backs the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) - adds an international dimension to the wars.

As power struggles and violent clashes continue between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the ICU in the centre and south of the country, the emergence of Al-Shabab - whom the US have branded a terrorist group linked to Al Qaeda - has exacerbated the situation and fuelled speculation that Somalia is the new front on terror and harbouring international terrorist networks.

While the risk of new fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea is apparently higher than ever as the UN ends its border peacekeeping mission, we examine and demystify the many wars in which Somalia is involved, and which make it such a violent and politically charged country. Is Somalia really the new front on terror?

Ahmed Abdisalam is Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Information, Youth & Sports for the Somali Transitional Federal Government.

Mohamed Gure is a Somali political activist and one of the founders of the Somali Concern Group (SCG) - a political organization that represents the interests of Somalis at home and abroad. The SCG was established in June 2003 and is a voluntary non-governmental, non-profit organization established to promote peace and reconciliation between warring Somali groups through dialogue.

Mary Harper is an African specialist for the BBC.

Sally Healy OBE is an Associate Fellow of the Africa Programe at Chatham House. She was formerly an East Africa specialist at the Foreign Office. She led a collaborative study of conflict in the Horn of Africa, the findings of which were published by Chatham House in June 2008: Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: how Conflicts Connect and Peace agreements unravel.

Patrick Smith is editor of Africa Confidential

Links

Africa Confidential
http://www.africa-confidential.com/home

Frontline Club
http://www.frontlineclub.com/index.php

Blogger: Somalia
http://crigler-somalia.blogspot.com/

Emerging land grab: investment for the future or the birth of a new food Imperialism?

A new rush to invest in agricultural production and the new land grab for Africa: Driver for agricultural development or the birth of a new food imperialism? Maneuvering to assure security of supply in the new global trade economy of "starve thy neighbour"

By the end of the 20th century commodity prices were depressed, mainly because of sluggish demand growth in relation to supply. Their value had been on a downward trend in real terms since the 1980's. Since 2002 however, commodity prices have rebounded, driven largely by growing demand in newly industrialising developing countries. If the cycle of growth and industrialization in these emergent economies continues, the current commodity boom may mark the beginning of a changed commodity economy in the twenty-first century characterized by a long-term demand growth for, and consequent resurgent value of, primary commodities in world trade. (See recent post: "Changing Commodity Economy").

The emergent economies driving this demand growth (China, India etc.) and increasingly competing with the developed world for global resources are inevitably maneuvering to secure their current and expanding long term commodity needs. This has led to a general resource "grab", or rush to secure access/rights to commodity resources principally concentrated in the developing world. Commodity rich Africa has inevitably become a major focus of this scramble for resources, and rising commodity demand has driven economic growth in the continent which has outpaced the developed world (though not developing Asia). This indecorous and at times unscrupulous rush to secure a share of Africa's resources however, has inevitably invited comparison to the "scramble for Africa" by western colonial powers at the end of the 19th century.

While the scramble for mineral and oil resources is a widely acknowledged geo-political phenomenon, with recent hikes in agro-commodity prices, there has emerged a new trend: a scramble for food supplies by direct purchase of agricultural land and investment in agricultural production, mostly in the developing world. Recent record food staple prices left big net food importers and big emergent markets like China and Saudi struggling to secure supply as well as provoking the slashing of import tariffs across the developing world - succeeding almost overnight where WTO talks had failed - but also provoking countries across Asia to impose export restrictions or bans on certain food products.

Apparently as a reaction to this environment, a number of countries are clearly maneuvering to secure food supply and price: Under a recently announced policy proposal being considered by Beijing, Chinese companies will be encouraged to buy farmland abroad, particularly in Africa and South America, to help guarantee food security. Saudi Arabia meanwhile, is looking at plans to establish joint ventures in Thailand, the world's largest exporter of rice, which guarantee the product to to Saudi and any surplus to other GCC countries in a bid to improve long-term food security. The UAE have been investing in agricultural land and production in Pakistan over the last year. Etc.

China already runs an agricultural trade deficit, and, while they are investing increasingly in rural development domestically, demand growth outstrips supply growth. Saudi meanwhile, while rich in oil, is unable to produce domestically the food crops it requires and in fact is scaling back what agricultural production it has in order to conserve on diminishing water resources. Faced with the prospect of higher global food commodity prices and increased price volatility, countries then, like China whose growing consumption outstrips growth in supply and oil rich but otherwise resource impoverished middle eastern countries like Saudi are clearly looking to bypass global commodity markets in order to secure directly affordable long term food supplies.

Saudi officials, apparently without appreciating the irony of this, have declared the necessity of purchasing, for example, rice supply, since they cannot be expected to remain at the mercy of price setting major exporters like India. These comments are thrown in an even more interesting light when considered against current proposals by Vietnam for the development of an OPEC style cartel of rice producers. Jiang Wenlai of the China Agricultural Science institute meanwhile was quoted as saying “China must ‘go out’ because our land resources are limited".

What though will these sort of policies mean for developing countries? Jiang Wenlai is quoted as saying "It will be a win-win solution that will benefit both parties by making the maximum use of the advantages of both sides.” It is not especially clear from this in what sense the developing countries China invests in will benefit, and Jiang Wenlai could not be reached for further comment. It is I suppose suggested however, that foreign investment in agricultural development and improved productivity etc. will benefit the target countries. The situation however, is undoubtedly not this simple, what are we witnessing: new investment in agricultural production? Or the emergence of a new food imperialism and "starve thy neighbour" trade economy?

The Changing Commodity Economy: Prices still a problem for Developing Countries?

Opportunities and challenges for trade and development, and the need for apporpriate policy responses.


Where developing countries, with economies heavily dependent on commodity production and export, have long suffered from the structural decline in the real price of commodities, what are the opportunities and challenges presented for developing countries by dramatic rises in commodity prices of the last few years?

By the end of the 20th century commodity prices were in the doldrums, mainly because of sluggish demand growth in relation to supply. They had been on the downward trend in real terms since the 1980's. However, since 2002, commodity prices have rebounded, driven largely by growing demand in newly industrialising developing countries. If the cycle of growth and industrialization in developing countries continues, the current commodity boom may mark the beginning of a changed commodity economy in the twenty-first century characterized by a long-term resurgence in the demand for, and concequently value of, primary commodities in world trade.

For commodity exporters, the rise in the unit price of exports, all else being equal, results in a positive development in the terms of trade (that is, the relative value of a country's exports to imports). This, in turn, results in a short-term improvement in the trade balance. One would expect then, the commodities production and export dominated economies of Sub-Saharan Africa to benefit from currently bouyant commodity prices. In practice, however, this is far from the case.

Only a few sub-Saharan countries have experienced an improvement in their terms of trade since 2003: (the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the Republic of Mozambique, Cameroon, and, to a lesser extent, Benin). The rest have faced a downturn, with Burkina Faso, the Republic of Ghana, and the Republic of Madagascar experiencing the worst deterioration.

This is at least partly down to the asymetrical impact high commodity prices are inclined to have on developing economies: this is because while on the one hand they are big commodity exporters, they are also often heavily relient on commodity imports, especially in many cases oil, as well as many African agro commodity exporters for example, also being net importers of food, and so the real income increase from rising comodity prices must be calculated against rises in the cost of imports. When price trends are unequal for different commodities, the impact on economies importing and exporting the wrong commodities can be acute. The fact that African oil exporters have done OK from the commodity price boom, while the majority of African states (who are generally high importers of oil - averaging some 16% of imports in 2004) have suffered, seems to support this analysis.










Questions to address:

How to take advantage of high commodity prices?

Who has benefited? Why?

Who has not benefited? Why?

Tendency for economic gains from improved commodity prices to be short lived? How do countries take advantage of and lock in gains from commodity pice boom? Policy? Investment?

Challenges for countries not benefiting? How to overcome/deal with these challenges?

Nature of changing commodity price economy?

Role of Asia (especially China) in shift in commodity economy and its effect on Africa (partly see answers to above, also China driven growth in African commodity exports).


Links